Buoyed by the energy of a resounding derby triumph, AC Milan head to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Sunday, aiming to sustain their recent momentum when they take on relegation-threatened Venezia. After securing their spot in the Coppa Italia final earlier this week, Milan must now navigate the final stretch of a disappointing Serie A season with professionalism and purpose, while their hosts fight desperately for survival.
The Rossoneri’s midweek encounter with city rivals Inter Milan delivered the high point of their season. With a place in the Coppa Italia final on the line, Milan produced a disciplined yet devastating performance to dismantle their rivals 3-0 on the night and 4-1 on aggregate. Luka Jovic, a figure of inconsistency since his arrival, rose to the occasion with an inspired display, while Tijjani Reijnders capped off the night with another goal that underlined his growing influence in midfield.
That derby win completed a remarkable unbeaten sweep against Inter across all competitions this season and handed manager Sergio Conceicao a much-needed reprieve in what has been a turbulent campaign. However, despite the cup heroics, Milan’s domestic league form leaves much to be desired.
Sitting ninth in the Serie A standings, and five points adrift of a European spot, the Rossoneri have little margin for error. Last week’s defeat to Atalanta, their fourth loss to La Dea in five meetings, all but ended any hopes of salvaging Champions League qualification through the league route. Winning the Coppa Italia has now become Milan’s clearest path back to continental competition.
With his future still uncertain, Conceicao must juggle keeping momentum alive for the final while attempting to restore some pride in Serie A. A slip-up against a struggling Venezia would undo much of the good work his side displayed on Wednesday.
For Venezia, the battle against relegation continues to ebb and flow with every passing matchday. Once seemingly consigned to an immediate return to Serie B, Eusebio Di Francesco’s side have staged a defiant comeback, losing only once in their last eight league outings.
The turnaround, however, has been marred by a frustrating inability to close out matches. Last weekend’s 2-2 draw against fellow strugglers Empoli was the latest example, as Venezia once again surrendered a lead — a recurring theme this season, with the Arancioneroverdi dropping a league-high 28 points from winning positions.
Despite the frustrations, Venezia have kept themselves within touching distance of safety, sitting just one point behind the 17th-placed side. Victory on Sunday could provide a timely boost, especially with a daunting run-in ahead.
However, their recent record against Milan offers little encouragement. Venezia have lost their last four matches against the Rossoneri, conceding 13 goals in the process, including a 4-0 defeat at San Siro earlier this season. Given Milan’s boost in morale and the disparity in squad quality, Di Francesco’s men will need to produce something extraordinary to reverse that trend. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
As Venezia prepare for one of their toughest challenges of the season, head coach Eusebio Di Francesco is expected to maintain faith in the tactical setup that has helped breathe life into their survival hopes. Sticking with the 3-5-1-1 formation that has offered a better balance between defensive solidity and attacking threat, only minor adjustments are anticipated for Sunday’s clash against Milan.
In terms of injury concerns, Venezia will have to manage without long-serving full-back Ridgeciano Haps, who is ruled out due to a calf strain sustained during training last week. Additionally, attacking midfielder Jay Idzes is a doubt after struggling with muscle tightness, but remains in the provisional squad. Elsewhere, manager Di Francesco can count on a relatively healthy roster compared to earlier points in the season, providing him with options from the bench should the need arise.
As for the probable lineup, goalkeeper Ionut Radu is likely to retain his place between the posts, offering experience and composure at the back. The three-man defensive line is expected to consist of Joel Schingtienne, Jay Idzes, provided he passes a late fitness test, and the reliable Fali Cande.
On the flanks, Alessio Zerbin and Mikael Egill Ellertsson are set to occupy the right and left wing-back roles, respectively, providing width and energy both defensively and in attack. In midfield, the trio of Kike Perez, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, and Gianluca Busio are poised to line up centrally, tasked with winning the midfield battles and linking the defence to the attack.
Leading the line will be Daniel Fila, operating just ahead of forward Kelvin Yeboah, who will likely be given the freedom to roam and exploit any gaps between Milan’s defenders. This shape allows Venezia to stay compact without sacrificing their ability to counter swiftly when opportunities arise.
Probable Lineup (3-5-1-1): Radu; Schingtienne, Idzes, Cande; Zerbin, Perez, Caviglia, Busio, Ellertsson; Yeboah; Fila
After sealing a morale-boosting triumph over city rivals Inter Milan in midweek, AC Milan head into their Serie A encounter against Venezia with renewed belief but a careful eye on squad management. Manager Sergio Conceicao is unlikely to make wholesale changes, although the Rossoneri must still navigate a few lingering injury concerns.
Right-back Emerson Royal remains unavailable, with his elbow injury requiring further rehabilitation, while midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek is also sidelined. The defensive unit could also see some rotation, as Matteo Gabbia, who suffered a minor neck problem during the derby, is expected to be rested as a precaution. This opens the door for Malick Thiaw to slot into the backline alongside the ever-reliable Fikayo Tomori and young defender Strahinja Pavlovic.
Between the sticks, Mike Maignan is fit and available, and the Frenchman will once again take his place as the last line of defence. In front of him, Milan should deploy a three-man defence, with Alex Jimenez and Theo Hernandez expected to occupy the right and left flanks, respectively, operating as dynamic wing-backs.
In central midfield, the energetic Youssouf Fofana will likely partner Tijjani Reijnders, providing a blend of physicality and creativity to control proceedings in the middle of the park. The forward line, refreshed and firing after midweek heroics, will see Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao operate on either side of Luka Jovic, whose performance against Inter surely cements his role as the central striker for this contest.
Milan’s 3-4-3 shape allows them to stretch opponents while also offering defensive stability, an approach Conceicao will trust to carry them over the line at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Thiaw, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Jovic, Leao
AC Milan have won each of their last four matches against Venezia across all competitions, scoring a combined 13 goals while conceding only once during that stretch.
Despite their improved recent form, Venezia have managed just two home wins in their last eight Serie A fixtures, highlighting the difficulty they face when hosting stronger opposition like Milan.
Although AC Milan impressed against Inter in midweek, they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Serie A away games.
Venezia have conceded 11 goals from set-pieces this Serie A season, one of the highest figures in the division.
When it comes to game-changers in AC Milan’s setup, few players are as vital as Rafael Leao. The Portuguese winger embodies unpredictability and flair, capable of turning matches in an instant with his blistering pace, close control, and daring one-on-one ability. After a relatively quiet spell earlier in the campaign, Leao seems to be finding his rhythm again, and his resurgence could not come at a better time for the Rossoneri.
Against a Venezia side that struggles defensively, particularly down the flanks, Leao’s direct running and sharp dribbling could prove devastating. His natural inclination to cut inside from the left onto his stronger right foot makes him a nightmare to mark, while his chemistry with Theo Hernandez down the left flank has been one of Milan’s most potent attacking weapons over the past few seasons.
Beyond his individual qualities, Leao’s role becomes even more important in the context of Milan’s broader ambitions. With league performances critical for momentum, players like the Portuguese international must deliver consistently in high-pressure environments.
If AC Milan are to avoid any slip-ups at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo and continue building confidence before the cup final, Rafael Leão’s spark will be essential. Whether it is an early burst of pace to unsettle Venezia’s backline or a moment of magic to carve open a stubborn defence, all eyes will be on the Portuguese star to inspire yet another crucial victory.
While Milan’s league form has been patchy, their confidence will be sky-high after their Coppa Italia exploits. With Tijjani Reijnders pulling the strings in midfield and players like Luka Jovic rediscovering their scoring touch, the Rossoneri should have too much for a Venezia side that often unravels under pressure.
Venezia’s spirit should not be discounted, and they will likely make life uncomfortable for stretches, but AC Milan’s superior quality in key areas should eventually shine through. Expect Sergio Conceicao’s men to come through with a hard-fought win that keeps their fading hopes of a top-eight finish alive.
