RB Leipzig will be looking to tighten their grip on the final Champions League qualification spot when they host bottom-placed Holstein Kiel at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday afternoon. But with just four matches left in the Bundesliga season, even a slight slip-up could prove costly in a congested European race.
Leipzig currently sit fourth in the table on 48 points, just two ahead of Mainz 05, who will be in action simultaneously against Wolfsburg. Interim boss Zsolt Lőw knows full well that his side cannot afford any complacency, especially against opponents with everything to fight for at the opposite end of the table.
Their most recent outing, a 3-2 home win over Wolfsburg, highlighted both their attacking flair and defensive fragility. Leipzig raced to a three-goal lead courtesy of three spectacular long-range strikes, only to be pegged back by two goals in the second half that made for a nervy finish. That victory marked a second consecutive win for Lőw’s side, but the absence of clean sheets in four straight matches—seven goals conceded in that span—remains a concern.
Still, their home form has been strong, with seven wins in their last 10 games at Red Bull Arena, suffering just one defeat in that time. Against a struggling Kiel side, Leipzig will be expected to dominate from the outset.
For Holstein Kiel, the situation is dire. Rooted to the bottom of the table with 18 points, their recent 2-1 loss to St. Pauli further compounded their misery. While they were marginally competitive, their vulnerability at set pieces was again exposed, having now conceded 15 goals from dead-ball situations, second only to Bochum in the division. No team in the Bundesliga has faced more shots from set pieces (155) than Kiel, highlighting their ongoing structural issues in defence.
Their away record tells a similar story of struggle. Kiel have managed just one win in their last 15 matches on the road, losing 10 of them. Furthermore, they’ve collected just one victory from their last 12 league games overall, slipping further into relegation trouble with each passing week.
In their first-ever Bundesliga meeting earlier this season, Leipzig ran out 2-0 winners, though the scoreline flattered them slightly, with a second-half penalty inflating their xG total. Nonetheless, it was another reminder of the gulf in quality between the two sides.
Marcel Rapp’s men must now attempt to defy the odds in Saxony. A defeat would mathematically guarantee a bottom-three finish, and even a draw may not be enough to ignite a late survival push, as they remain four points adrift of the relegation playoff spot. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Leipzig will be without one of their most influential players for Saturday’s clash, as Xavi Simons, who scored a brace in the recent win over Wolfsburg, is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. The Dutch attacker joins Antonio Nusa on the sidelines, with the Norwegian winger still recovering from injury.
Further adding to the selection challenges, Xaver Schlager is also ruled out through injury, while both Benjamin Henrichs and David Raum remain unavailable, leaving Leipzig stretched in defensive areas. Interim boss Zsolt Lőw may once again deploy Castello Lukeba at left-back to cover the gap, despite his natural position being in central defence.
Given these absences, Leipzig will likely turn to Christoph Baumgartner and Ridle Baku to provide creative support for the strike duo of Benjamin Šeško and Loïs Openda, who are expected to lead the line in a two-man attack.
In midfield, Nicolas Seiwald and Arthur Vermeeren are set to form the central partnership, offering defensive solidity and ball distribution in the absence of Schlager. Their role will be particularly crucial in transitioning quickly from defence to attack against a Kiel side prone to conceding from open play and set pieces.
The back four is expected to feature Nikola Nedeljković at right-back, with Willi Orbán and El Chadaille Bitshiabu continuing their partnership at centre-back. Castello Lukeba will likely be deployed again at left-back. Peter Gulácsi retains his spot in goal, offering leadership and experience from the back.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Nedeljkovic, Orban, Bitshiabu, Lukeba; Baku, Seiwald, Vermeeren, Baumgartner; Sesko, Openda
The visitors enter this crucial Bundesliga encounter severely hampered by injuries across the pitch. Defensively, they are without the services of Colin Kleine-Bekel, Ivan Nekic, and Patrick Erras, all of whom remain sidelined. These absences leave head coach Marcel Rapp with limited options at the back, forcing him to rely on less-experienced or out-of-position players in key roles.
Further complicating matters in midfield, veteran playmaker Lewis Holtby remains out and is not expected to return until early May. His absence deprives Kiel of one of their most composed and creative presences in the centre of the park. Meanwhile, in attack, the visitors are also missing Andu Yobel Kelati and Benedikt Pichler, both unavailable due to injury.
Given the personnel issues, Rapp is expected to adopt a 3-5-2 formation. Thomas Dähne will start in goal, shielded by a makeshift defensive trio of Timo Becker, David Zec, and Marco Komenda. These three will need to remain compact and disciplined, especially given Leipzig’s attacking strength and pace on the break.
The wing-back roles are likely to be filled by Lasse Rosenboom on the right and John Tolkin on the left, providing both defensive cover and width in transition. In central midfield, Magnus Knudsen, Armin Gigovic, and Nicolai Remberg will be tasked with breaking up play, offering protection to the back three, and supplying quick ball progression to the forwards.
Up front, Alexander Bernhardsson and Shuto Machino are the most probable starters in the two-man forward line. With limited service and under pressure from the outset, their main duties will be to exploit any gaps on the counter and press high when opportunities arise.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Dahne; Becker, Zec, Komenda; Rosenboom, Knudsen, Gigovic, Remberg, Tolkin; Bernhardsson, Machino
RB Leipzig have won all three of their previous professional meetings with Holstein Kiel, twice in the 3. Liga and once in the Bundesliga. Only against Hannover 96 (four matches) have Leipzig played more games without dropping points.
Leipzig are on a record 35-game unbeaten streak against promoted Bundesliga teams (31 wins, 4 draws), which is the longest such run in league history. They’ve won 18 of their last 19 matches in this category.
Leipzig have won two straight Bundesliga games for the first time since mid-December 2024. They have now won three of their last four league matches (1 loss), matching the total wins from their previous 12 fixtures combined.
With just 18 points from 29 games, Holstein Kiel are experiencing the second-worst season by a Bundesliga debutant since three-point wins were introduced. Only Greuther Fürth in 2012/13 had fewer (15 points). No team has survived relegation with just 18 points at this stage.
Kiel have scored in every away Bundesliga game this season (21 goals in 14 matches), a feat only matched by Liverpool across Europe’s top five leagues. However, they have also conceded the most away goals (37), highlighting their defensive frailty on the road.
With Xavi Simons suspended, all eyes turn to Benjamin Šeško to carry the attacking load for RB Leipzig against Holstein Kiel. The Slovenian striker has steadily grown into his role this season, showcasing a lethal combination of pace, aerial strength, and clinical finishing.
Šeško’s ability to play on the shoulder of the last defender makes him a constant threat in behind, especially against a Kiel side that has struggled defensively, particularly on set pieces and counter-attacks. His movement inside the box, coupled with his knack for finding pockets of space, will be critical in breaking down the Bundesliga’s bottom-placed team.
As Leipzig push to cement a Champions League spot, Šeško’s goals could prove decisive. Expect him to be the focal point in the final third and a constant menace for the Kiel defence. If Leipzig dominate possession and territory as expected, Šeško could easily find himself on the scoresheet.
This fixture pits one of the Bundesliga’s most dynamic attacking sides against its most fragile defence. RB Leipzig should have far too much quality for a Holstein Kiel team struggling both at home and away, especially when it comes to defending set pieces and maintaining structure under pressure.
With Benjamin Sesko in fine form, and Leipzig unbeaten in nine of their last 10 home matches, the hosts should dominate possession, create plenty of chances, and comfortably secure all three points. Kiel, meanwhile, look destined to remain at the foot of the table, with another difficult 90 minutes ahead in Saxony.
