As the Bundesliga season enters its decisive stretch, RB Leipzig find themselves in unfamiliar territory — scrambling to keep their Champions League hopes alive. On Saturday, they welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Red Bull Arena in a match that could shape both ends of the table. While Leipzig aim to rejoin the top-four conversation, Hoffenheim are quietly trying to steer clear of a potential relegation battle.
Leipzig’s recent struggles culminated in a major decision last week, with the club parting ways with head coach Marco Rose following a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach. In his place, assistant manager Zsolt Low has been handed the reins — at least temporarily — in hopes of steadying a ship that is threatening to drift off course.
The dismissal was not entirely unexpected. Leipzig’s attacking output has dried up at the worst possible moment, with the team failing to score in four of their last eight Bundesliga matches. Despite showing some defensive resilience with four clean sheets during that same run, their lack of firepower has left them clinging to sixth place, three points behind fourth-placed Mainz 05 with just seven rounds remaining.
Their midweek DFB-Pokal semi-final against Stuttgart, Low’s first game in charge, saw a marginal improvement in attacking urgency, as Leipzig registered 25 shots. However, they were still beaten 3-1, underlining their recent inability to convert dominance into results.
Form-wise, Die Roten Bullen have won just three of their last 12 matches in all competitions, although their home record remains a silver lining. Leipzig have lost just once in their last nine games at Red Bull Arena, winning six and drawing two, suggesting they still carry a certain authority when playing in front of their fans.
While Leipzig are chasing Europe, Hoffenheim are entrenched in a fight of a very different nature. Sitting in 14th place, just five points above the drop zone, the visitors know that every point could be critical in the final stretch. Their 1-1 draw with Augsburg before the international break extended their unbeaten run to three matches, but question marks remain about their attacking threat.
Their equaliser in that game came courtesy of a late penalty, which also happened to be their only shot on target. The attacking malaise is not new — Hoffenheim have scored just four goals in their last five league games. However, they have balanced that with some defensive solidity, also conceding just four in that time.
Manager Christian Ilzer, who has brought some semblance of structure to his side since taking over, has now overseen two draws and a loss in the last three outings. Yet, looking at the bigger picture, Hoffenheim have lost only once in their past six league matches, a run that includes notable away wins.
Indeed, their away form has quietly improved, with four wins in their last six Bundesliga road trips. They have netted 12 goals in those away victories, suggesting that despite overall inconsistency, Hoffenheim are capable of hurting teams when given space to counter.
Their most recent clash with Leipzig ended in a thrilling 4-3 win back in November — a rare triumph in a historically tough match-up. That victory broke a seven-match winless streak against Die Roten Bullen, and Ilzer will hope that memory gives his side a psychological edge heading into Saturday. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Leipzig enter Saturday’s contest with a mixed injury report. The good news is that Peter Gulacsi has recovered from illness and is expected to reclaim his spot between the posts. However, Benjamin Henrichs remains unavailable due to a muscular injury and is not expected to return until late May. The defensive line will also continue to miss El Chadaille Bitshiabu, who, while fit enough to be in contention, has not consistently featured due to fitness management after long-term injury.
In midfield, Kevin Kampl, Xaver Schlager, and rising talent Forzan Assan Ouedraogo are all ruled out due to various physical setbacks, leaving Leipzig a little short on depth in central areas. Meanwhile, in the final third, winger Antonio Nusa has been ruled out with a muscular issue, limiting Leipzig’s attacking options off the bench.
There are no suspensions for Leipzig heading into the weekend, allowing interim manager Zsolt Low to name a fairly settled starting XI despite the absentees.
RB Leipzig are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 formation. Peter Gulacsi will start in goal, with a defensive quartet comprising Ridle Baku at right-back, Willi Orban and El Chadaille Bitshiabu forming the centre-back partnership, and David Raum operating on the left.
The central midfield will be anchored by Arthur Vermeeren and Nicolas Seiwald, who will be tasked with both protecting the backline and launching transitions from deep. Out wide, Christoph Baumgartner is likely to start on the right, offering vertical runs and energy, while Xavi Simons will take up a more creative role on the left, looking to drift inside and link play.
Finally, up front, Leipzig’s dynamic strike partnership of Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will spearhead the attack, combining aerial presence and explosive pace to test the Hoffenheim defence.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Baku, Orban, Bitshiabu, Raum; Baumgartner, Vermeeren, Seiwald, Simons; Sesko, Openda
Hoffenheim will be forced to reshuffle their defensive and attacking setups due to a mounting injury list ahead of their trip to Leipzig. Central defenders Ozan Kabak and Christopher Lenz remain sidelined with injuries, ruling them out of Saturday’s clash. Their absence will likely prompt manager Christian Ilzer to start Arthur Chaves and Leo Ostigard as the central defensive pairing.
The midfield is also depleted, with Grischa Promel, Diadie Samassekou, and Alexander Prass all ruled out due to injury. This leaves Anton Stach and Tom Bischof as the most probable choices to occupy the double pivot in central midfield, having featured together in recent weeks.
Hoffenheim’s attacking depth has taken a hit too. Forwards Max Moerstedt, Ihlas Bebou, and Adam Hlozek are all unavailable, restricting the options in the final third. Fortunately, Gift Orban is fit and will be expected to lead the line once again. There are no suspensions affecting the squad, which provides some flexibility for Ilzer to make tactical adjustments with the remaining personnel.
Hoffenheim are expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Veteran goalkeeper Oliver Baumann will retain his place in goal, shielded by a back four consisting of Pavel Kaderabek at right-back, Arthur Chaves and Leo Ostigård at centre-back, and David Jurasek at left-back. In midfield, Anton Stach and Tom Bischof will anchor the central areas, offering balance and work rate in both defensive and transitional phases.
Ahead of them, the attacking midfield trio will likely feature Bazoumana Toure on the right wing, Andrej Kramaric operating centrally as the team’s creative fulcrum, and Marius BUlter on the left flank. Leading the line will be Gift Gift Orban, whose pace and finishing will be vital to Hoffenheim’s chances of breaching Leipzig’s defence.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Baumann; Kaderabek, Chaves, Ostigard, Jurasek; Stach, Bischof; Toure, Kramaric, Bulter; Orban
Hoffenheim are winless in their last six Bundesliga trips to Leipzig (D2 L4), losing each of their last three at Red Bull Arena.
This is RB Leipzig’s worst Bundesliga campaign after 27 games (42 points), while Hoffenheim are enduring their second-worst (27 points, -16 GD).
Leipzig have won just two of their last 11 Bundesliga matches (D6 L3) and have failed to score in seven league games this season.
Since Christian Ilzer took charge, Hoffenheim have won a league-high 11 points from losing positions; Leipzig have dropped 11 points from winning positions in the same span.
Leipzig have conceded only five goals in the final 15 minutes all season (joint-league lowest), but Hoffenheim scored 2 late goals in the reverse fixture and have conceded just 12% of their goals in that period.
In a season clouded by inconsistency and transition, Xavi Simons remains a shining light for RB Leipzig. The Dutch midfielder has been one of the most exciting and dynamic players in the Bundesliga this campaign, offering a rare blend of creativity, flair, and technical finesse that has often set him apart even when his team has struggled.
Deployed predominantly on the left flank or as an advanced playmaker, Simons thrives in tight spaces and has the ability to beat defenders with ease. His vision and range of passing make him a key link between midfield and attack, and he often serves as the spark that ignites Leipzig’s forward momentum. Despite Leipzig’s patchy form, Simons has consistently been among their top contributors for both goals and assists.
What makes Xavi Simons particularly dangerous is his versatility. He can drift centrally to overload midfield spaces, operate out wide to stretch defensive lines, or combine in quick transitions with forwards like Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko.
Against a Hoffenheim side that has shown signs of defensive fragility, especially when faced with agile and technically gifted players, Simons could be the one to unlock the game. If Leipzig are to break through a compact Hoffenheim block and re-establish their presence in the top-four race, expect Xavi Simons to be at the heart of the action.
Both teams enter this clash with pressure weighing heavily on them, albeit for different reasons. Leipzig’s managerial change may spark an initial reaction, especially at home, but Hoffenheim’s renewed discipline on the road and recent record away from home could make this tighter than expected. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Zsolt Low and his charges.
